Arunachal Pradesh crises

Arunachal Pradesh has taken a new turn in the context of the mass migration of 43 Congress MLAs, including the Chief Minister Pema Khandu, to the People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA), part of a regional front led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Congress’s strength in the Assembly is now reduced to one as former Chief Minister Nabam Tuki has chosen to remain in the party. . The 60-member State Assembly has a strength now of 57 — the status of two MLAs, Wanglam Sawin and Gabriel D. Wangsu, is pending with the Speaker over contentions over the disqualification issue, and Kalikho Pul, the former Chief Minister, is no more — and the emergence of the PPA as the single largest party is a political victory for the BJP.
Timeline of crises
The course of events can be seen as a logical continuation of political developments taking place in the border State since December 2014, when Nabam Tuki dropped Kalikho Pul, the Health and Family Welfare Minister, in a cabinet reshuffle. Amid growing dissident party activities in the State, which posed a challenge to the government, the Congress expelled Kalikho Pul on allegations of anti-party activities in April 2015. In the beginning of the year, the BJP orchestrated defections in the ruling Congress and there was political instability in the State which culminated in the resignation of the Nabam Tuki government and the House being kept under suspended animation. Subsequently, President’s Rule was imposed under Article 356 and on the recommendation of the Union Cabinet citing constitutional breakdown in the State. On February 19, 2016, dissident Congress leader Kalikho Pul finally formed the new government with outside support of the BJP. Although the Congress had the support of 47 MLAs in the House, 21 of them supported Pul who later formed the PPA.
However, in a major setback to the BJP and the Centre, the Supreme Court, on July 13, ordered restoration of the Congress government under Nabam Tuki, saying the “clock should be turned back”. It quashed the decision of Governor J.P. Rajkhowa in February this year as a violation of the Constitution. The order was met with jubilation by the Congress which termed it as the victory for democracy in the State and a setback for the BJP’s effort in trying to dislodge Congress regimes across India. However, the Governor set July 16 as the deadline for proving the government’s majority in the Assembly though Mr. Tuki sought at least 10 days time. Though he was confident of winning the trust vote by appealing to the dissident party MLAs to support his government in the confidence motion, the central leadership sensed danger. On the eve of the trust vote, the party decided to change its Chief Minister taking into account of the mood of the dissident MLAs.
The replacement of Mr. Tuki by the young Pema Khandu, son of former Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu, not only saved the Congress government but also put hurdles before the BJP-orchestrated defection. The truce within the Congress in Arunachal Pradesh was considered to be a personal setback for the BJP’s Amit Shah, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Kiren Rijiju and their destabilising strategy towards Congress regimes in the region. However, the change of guard temporarily solved the political crisis for a while in the aftermath of the reinstatement of Mr. Tuki. After a gap of two months, the State once again witnessed more political drama with the switchover, posing a challenge to the central leadership of the Congress. Interestingly, it has also come as a morale booster to the BJP.
In Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP has a history of orchestrating defections in the Congress, bringing down Congress regimes, supporting rebel leaders to form a government with its outside support, and also merging splintered political factions with the BJP. Perhaps, the party’s first ever attempt to destabilise Congress governments in the Northeast goes back to 2003 with the Arunachal Pradesh experiment. In July that year, during the Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, dissident Congress leader Gegong Apang toppled the Mukut Mithi-led Congress government and became the Chief Minister under the newly floated United Democratic Front (UDF), which later merged with the BJP. However, in 2004, when the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government came to power at the Centre, Mr. Apang rejoined the Congress and contested the next election under the Congress symbol.
Steady inroads
After this failed experiment, the BJP built up a strong base in Arunachal Pradesh, making inroads into the electoral base of the Congress. In the 2004 general election, the party could win both seats in the State with a vote share of 53.85 per cent. In the subsequent general election of 2009, the party lost to the Congress and its vote share reduced to 37.17 per cent. In the 2014 general election, it wrested one seat from the ruling Congress with a vote share of 46.62 per cent. In the State Assembly election held along with the general election in 2014, the BJP won 11 seats with a vote share of 30.97 per cent. In 2009 it could secure only three seats. The Congress won 42 seats with a vote share of 49.9 per cent, the PPA five seats, and independents two.
The BJP’s effort now to install a PPA-led government has to be seen in the larger context of its politics in the region. Though the BJP’s attempt to dislodge the Congress government began soon after the general election in 2014, it accelerated following the Assam Assembly election. The newly floated North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) has been trying to dislodge Congress governments by encouraging defections and offering positions and money to the MLAs to achieve Mr. Shah’s goal of a “Congress-free” Northeast. The current political developments have a bearing on Congress-ruled Manipur and Meghalaya where the BJP, under NEDA, appears to be in the mood for dislodging governments.
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